By The Closing Line · Trade Example #10 · Traded October 23, 2026 · Posted October 26, after settlement
✅ Won +$3.92 (+2.7%)
Smart money backed the Timberwolves side in Minnesota at Orlando. During the game, with Orlando well behind, we bought NO on a huge Magic win and held to settlement.
Note: our founder made this trade over the weekend while away from the computer, so this write-up is posted after the market settled. The position and result are on our Kalshi profile.
The read
Trade Finder and Trade Wizard showed smart money on the Timberwolves side of this game. Kalshi clears its public holder lists once a market settles, so we can't show the exact positions, levels or sizes here. That's also why we post trade examples while they're open whenever we can.
The trade
During the game, we bought 150 NO on "Magic win by over 22.5 points" for $146.08 in total, an average of 97.39¢ including fees.
With Orlando trailing, a 23-point Magic win was close to impossible, and the price showed it: YES traded at 1–3¢. This was a near-lock: a small, high-probability gain backed by the smart money's side.
| Our trade | |
|---|---|
| Market | NO on Magic by 22.5+ |
| Wins if | Orlando doesn't win by 23 or more |
| Entry | 97.39¢ average (incl. fees), in-game |
The result
The Timberwolves won by 22 or 23 points (they covered "by 21.5" but not "by 23.5"). Orlando never got close to a 23-point win, so the market settled NO.
| In | Out | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| $146.08 | $150.00 | +$3.92 (+2.7%) |
A small win on a lopsided trade: $146 risked for under $4. In-game near-locks like this only pay over time if the outcome really is as safe as the price says, which is why we take them only when the smart money is on the same side.
It's on the Track Record with every other trade, wins and losses alike. For how we trade games in progress, see How to Make Money on Kalshi Live Events.
Verify it: posted on our Kalshi profile, TheClosingLine.
A real position held by our founder, shared to show how we use our tools. Not a recommendation. For entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice.