By The Closing Line · Trade Example #4 · October 14, 2026 · Live
🔴 Live: 100 NO on "Robert Gasser: 6+ strikeouts" at 86.84¢
Saw Level 3 smart money on the under for Gasser's strikeouts. Followed it, on the safe side.
Disclosure: The Closing Line's founder holds 100 NO contracts on "Robert Gasser: 6+" strikeouts in Brewers vs. Dodgers (Game 3), at an average of 86.84¢ as shown on Kalshi. A real position, shared to show how we use our tools. Not a recommendation. For entertainment purposes only.
The read
The only smart money on Gasser's strikeouts was a Level 3 trader with $3,876 on NO for "4+ strikeouts", bought at 57¢: a bet that the Brewers starter finishes with 3 or fewer.
The rest of the smart money on this game's strikeout props leaned the same way, against strikeouts. A Level 4 trader held NO on Dodgers starter Blake Snell reaching 7+, and a Level 1 trader held NO on Snell reaching 10+.
The trade
We followed the read with more cushion: 100 NO on "Robert Gasser: 6+ strikeouts". The smart money needs Gasser to finish with 3 or fewer. Our position wins on anything up to 5.
| Smart money | Our trade | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | NO on 4+ strikeouts | NO on 6+ strikeouts |
| Wins if Gasser strikes out | 3 or fewer | 5 or fewer |
| Entry | 57¢ | 86.84¢ |
Same pattern as Trade Example #3: follow the side, then take a line with room to spare.
What's at stake
| In | If NO wins | Profit | If Gasser strikes out 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| $86.84 | $100.00 | +$13.16 (+15.2%) | −$86.84 |
How it settles: if Gasser starts and faces at least one batter, the market settles on his strikeouts. Relief appearances don't count, and if he's scratched the market resolves to a fair price.
Coming next
The market settles after the game. We'll update this case study with the result, win or lose, and add it to the Track Record.
Verify it: posted on our Kalshi profile, TheClosingLine.
For entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Trading involves risk of loss.