Data from Kalshi and Trade Finder, October 21, 2026 · Updated as Election Day nears
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Kalshi's House and Senate control markets alone have traded nearly 80 million contracts, and its prices are some of the most-watched election odds in the country. But a price only tells you what the crowd thinks. This guide shows Kalshi's midterm odds right now and, race by race, how much smart money (the sharpest, most proven traders) is behind them.
Kalshi midterm odds at a glance
| Race | Kalshi favorite | Price (chance) |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. House control | Democrats | 91¢ (91%) |
| U.S. Senate control | Democrats | 66¢ (66%) |
| "Blue wave" (Dems hold 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats) | Yes | 83¢ |
| Texas Senate | James Talarico (D) | 63¢ |
| Michigan Senate | Democrat | 69¢ |
| Ohio Senate | Sherrod Brown (D) | 65¢ |
| Minnesota Senate | Peggy Flanagan (D) | 88¢ |
| Ohio Governor | Amy Acton (D) | 78¢ |
| Iowa Governor | Rob Sand (D) | 87¢ |
| California Governor | Xavier Becerra (D) | 97¢ |
A Kalshi price is the market's odds: 66¢ means traders put the chance at about 66%. A winning contract pays $1.00.
Where the smart money is
Trade Finder profiles the largest public positions in each race with our trader-scoring model and ranks the sharpest traders as Smart Money Levels 1 to 4. Conviction is how much of that smart money sits on one side: 100% means none of it is on the other side.
| Race | Smart money | Top level | Traders | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. House control | $681,741 | Level 4 | 7 | 100% |
| U.S. Senate control | $186,671 | Level 4 | 4 | 57%: split |
| Texas Senate | $130,206 | Level 4 | 6 | 62%: split |
| Michigan Senate | $103,689 | Level 3 | 5 | 99% |
| Minnesota Senate | $73,403 | Level 4 | 4 | 100% |
| "Blue wave" | $70,542 | Level 4 | 5 | 100% |
| California Governor | $67,434 | Level 4 | 9 | 100% |
| Ohio Senate | $51,641 | Level 4 | 8 | 77% |
| Ohio Governor | $46,758 | Level 4 | 6 | 99% |
| Iowa Governor | $32,759 | Level 4 | 3 | 99% |
Which side each one backs is in Trade Finder. Here's what stands out.
House control: the biggest smart-money position on Kalshi
House control has $681,741 of smart money, the largest of any market we track, with Level 4 traders involved and 100% conviction: no smart money at all on the other side. When the sharpest traders are this unanimous, it's worth knowing which side they're on, and where they got in.
Senate control: smart money is split
The Senate is the opposite case. $186,671 of smart money, but only 57% sits on one side. When the sharpest traders disagree with each other, the price is usually close to fair, and the race deserves more caution than its 66% suggests.
Texas Senate: the race where whales and smart money disagree
Texas has the most smart money of any single Senate race ($130,206, Level 4) and the most disagreement: 62% conviction. We covered this race in depth in Kalshi Whale Tracker vs. Smart Money, where the biggest position and the sharpest one pointed different ways.
Michigan: two markets, two answers
Kalshi lists Michigan's Senate race twice: by party and by candidate. Smart money is 99% one-sided on the party market, but only 82% on the candidate market for Mike Rogers. When two markets on the same race disagree, check both in Trade Wizard before acting on either.
How to use this before Election Day
- Start with conviction. A 100% market tells you the sharpest traders agree. A split market tells you the edge, if any, is thin.
- Compare their entry with today's price. If smart money got in far below the current price, much of the move may already be priced in.
- Check the whole event. Party and candidate markets can disagree.
- Mind the payoff. At 91¢ you risk 91¢ to make 9¢. One upset erases several wins.
- Watch the history. Smart money can sell before Election Day. Trade Wizard shows who's still holding.
Frequently asked questions
What are Kalshi's odds for the 2026 midterms?
As of October 21, 2026, Kalshi prices Democrats to win the House at about 91% and the Senate at about 66%. Prices move every day; Trade Finder updates every 30 minutes.
What is smart money on Kalshi?
Positions held by the sharpest, most proven traders, ranked by our trader-scoring model as Smart Money Levels 1 to 4. We never show names, only level, size, side and entry.
Are Kalshi election odds accurate?
Kalshi prices reflect real money from traders on both sides, which tends to make them responsive to news. They're probabilities, not predictions: a 66% favorite loses about one time in three.
When do Kalshi election markets settle?
When the result is certified or clearly determined under each market's rules, which can be days or weeks after November 3 for close races.
For entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Trading involves risk of loss.