By The Closing Line · Trade Example #3 · October 13, 2026
✅ Won +$6.00 (+6.4%)
Saw Level 4 smart money on the Guardians–Rays total. Followed it, on the safe side. Won.
The read
The only smart money on this game's total runs was a Level 4 trader with $9,821 on NO for "Over 6.5 runs", bought at 48¢: a bet on a low-scoring game. No smart money was on the Over side of any line.
The trade
We followed the read with far more cushion: 100 NO on "Over 11.5 runs scored" at 94¢, placed as a limit order (no fee). The smart money needed 6 runs or fewer. Our position won on anything up to 11 runs.
| Smart money | Our trade | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | NO on Over 6.5 | NO on Over 11.5 |
| Wins if total runs are | 6 or fewer | 11 or fewer |
| Entry | 48¢ | 94¢ |
The result
The game stayed well under 11.5 runs, so our NO pays $1.00 per contract.
| In (limit order, no fee) | Out | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| $94.00 | $100.00 | +$6.00 (+6.4%) |
A small, likely gain against a large, unlikely loss, and no fee thanks to the limit order. MLB totals charge makers nothing (here's why that matters). It's on the Track Record with every other trade, wins and losses alike.
Verify it: posted on our Kalshi profile, TheClosingLine.
A real position held by our founder, shared to show how we use our tools. Not a recommendation. For entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice.